Poker - A game of chance or skill ?

[geoff365]

Skill that he stacked or was it unlucky?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNz-D...elated&search=

[ian]

The poker legend reckons five of the six billion people on Earth could make it if they put their minds to it -- the rest "probably just don't have the skills."

A quote from an AFP story on Yahoo New Zealand today.


World poker king insists anyone can become an ace
http://nz.entertainment.yahoo.com/070918/8/1q3f.html


I wonder if 5 of the 6 billion could also be a Tiger Woods or a Roger Federer ?


Another sentence of wisdom from the one always wearing the black clothes of his sponsor.

"Almost anybody on this planet can be the next world champion -- and people know that"


Who knows if I get lucky enough it might even be me !.
Has anyone got $10k to spare next summer ? I'll even wear a baseball cap with your logo on it


Ian

[Quorthon]

Originally Posted by ian

The WSOPE main event has been won by an 18 year old Norwegian Girl.

So where does that leave the skill argument ?
Shot to pieces is the answer.

Ian

While it is fair to say that there is a large luck factor in Poker, the skill factor cannot be ignored over the long term. Why is it that the same pool of people have large winning records over the long term?
Annette, known as "Annette_15" online is a regular winner online and has an enviable record that can be looked up on any online Poker database.
Just because the Pros make the occasional mistake and the occasional novice gets through does not IMO invalidate the skill component.
This is not to say that Poker requires as much skill as say, Chess. Certainly it doesn't but there is a definite + expectation for a skilled player.

[ian]

Hello Q,

Looking at the statement again maybe I should have said - So where does that leave the "Poker is a game of skill" argument.

As that was the claim in the Gutshot court case. However since then a single judge in Denmark has apparently ruled the game is indeed skill and in Russia Poker is now considered a sport.

I suppose it's like the argument over Blackjack terminals with a virtual dealer. Are they a slot or a table game ?. The answer appears to be both. It depends who the suppliers are trying to sell it to


Ian

[erdnase]

Ok, it may sound too elementary, but to me, Cash Texas Hold'em is a game of SKILL involving some CHANCE and Tournament Texas Hold'em is a game of CHANCE involving some SKILL.

Bye

[Crazy Horse]

If poker were a game where the cards are dealt face up and that the best hand wins...would be pure chance!

The fact that there are rounds of betting in a hand of poker eliminates a big percentage of chance,even more so in cash games.

Skill and Psychology play a major part in being a consistent winner at the game...and yes there are consistent winners at the game.

Which of course means that there are consistent losers at the game...
are they just unfortunate or are they actually bad players.

Anyone can learn what a premium hand is,but it is the more skilled player who will get more for their hands.
Reading other players also plays a big part.
Patience and money management also play a part in being a consistent winner...which leaves the smallest piece of pie...CHANCE!

No Brainer...Skill has chance dominated!!!

[ian]

Hello CH,

I played in a tournament last night in a local pub. €15 to enter with a bunch of tech gadgets as prizes - mp3 players etc...

http://www.poker-nordliga.de

There are 3 players left on my table and the winner goes through to the final. 30k in chips in play and I have circa 9k. The chip leader goes all-in pre-flop with circa 17k and I call. He turns over A-2 and I have A-Q. 2 more 2's appear on the board and I'm out of the game.

I should in theory win 7 out of 10 such hands outright, but on this particular one I was unlucky and lost.

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_odds/texas_holdem

As a result of that one hand the player shortly later went on to win the table. So it wasn't really skill at all that decided the outcome.

Where does that leave your argument - Skill has chance dominated ?


Ian

[Jack Manfred]

Originally Posted by ian

Hello CH,

I played in a tournament last night in a local pub. €15 to enter with a bunch of tech gadgets as prizes - mp3 players etc...

http://www.poker-nordliga.de

There are 3 players left on my table and the winner goes through to the final. 30k in chips in play and I have circa 9k. The chip leader goes all-in pre-flop with circa 17k and I call. He turns over A-2 and I have A-Q. 2 more 2's appear on the board and I'm out of the game.

I should in theory win 7 out of 10 such hands outright, but on this particular one I was unlucky and lost.

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_odds/texas_holdem

As a result of that one hand the player shortly later went on to win the table. So it wasn't really skill at all that decided the outcome.

Where does that leave your argument - Skill has chance dominated ?


Ian

How can so many managers and people highly dedicated to this business have these kind of flaws when it comes to gaming theory and poker?

You sound like a punter who claims he beats roulette. How can you use a isolated incident as an argument?

[Crazy Horse]

Hi Ian

As I said in my post,you need a little more luck when playing tournaments.
You lost a race with your AQ against A2 and yes chance has played it's part in that particular hand(saying that had you been playing limit poker,you'd probably still have chips)
There are more races in tournaments therefor more chance involved.In tournaments,chip stacks can be blinded away and leave the player with no choice but to play what they decide may be their last best chance.
All in is a gamble whether you have the best starting hand or the worst and as you said yourself,your AQ would win the majority of races against A2.
Going all in pre flop is just a gamble!
The best chance a novice has against a top player would be to use the all in and hope for the best(saying that they'll be found out sooner or later)
Had there been a bet and a call(not all in)pre flop a decent player would know when to pass having seen the flop,turn or river.

You said that your hand will win 7 out of 10...that's a healthy margin.
Your opponent has obviously made a move with an Ace high which aint too bad a hand 3 handed and has pushed all in knowing even if he doesn't win the pot,he still has chips to play with, you on the other hand have gambled your tournament life with the AQ not knowing for sure that you had the best starting hand.
It is always easier to make a move than it is to call a move(especially when it's all your chips)
Had you passed your hand then you would still have chips.
Had you been chip leader then you would still have chips.
Had there been a smaller raise or no raise pre flop and you got to see the flop with your AQ...you could still have chips.
As I said,if you were to deal out all hands and then turn over the communal cards...it would be 100% chance who wins,but poker is so much more complex.
Posistion play,bluffing,semi bluffing,trapping are some parts of a complex game that when used right will make the difference in your overall results.there is so much strategy involved which takes away most of the luck factor.

If the best Snooker player in the world plays against a lower ranked player and conceeds a couple of frames...does that mean it's a game of chance? and the same can be said for just about every game known to man.

I,like many others I know live from playing poker(cash games) and the occasional tournament.
I have losing days but I'm showing a healthy profit and it's not just knowing the best hands.It's more to do with the fact that there are more bad players than goodIf it were chance it would be closer to 50/50 on who's winning/losing,but the fact is only a small percentage of players can survive and thats at the expense of the bigger % of bad players.

[Kolya]

Actually poker is a game of patience, pure and simple. If you are prepared to sit there for hour after hour sooner or later the right hand is going to present itself and you will walk away with the money.

[ian]

Hello Kolya,

Welcome to the forum. Yes patience is very important and I think that's the first time anyone has mentioned it on this thread.

I played in a cash game at the local Spielbank last Saturday and was getting pasted. 4 key hands lost, all on the River and I was down to just €24. There was still a couple of hours before my train so I decided to sit tight (It's not over till it's over).

After a couple of all-in winners and other bits and pieces I held KK on a hand with Q high flop. A small bet was raised by my opponent, I re-raised and he went all-in which I called. The Cowboys held up aqainst AQ and Ian unexpectedly had his money back plus the day's expenses covered.


So IMHO good fortune (luck) was the dominating factor, but if I didn't have patience it would certainly have been a miserable walk back to the Station.


Ian

[ian]

This thread remains one of the most popular on the forum with over 10k views but there's not been much to report recently.

That's set to change though with the publication of a study from the University of Hamburg's Institute of Law and Economics.


Poker skills could sway gaming laws
http://www.newscientist.com/article/...ef=online-news



Apparently 55,000 online Poker players were tracked over 3 months and the conclusions are...

"Based on these factors, they found that the threshold at which the effects of skill start to dominate over chance is typically about 1000 hands, equivalent to about 33 hours of playing in person or 13 hours online, where the rate of play is brisker. So although chance plays a role, they suggest that because most players easily play this many hands in a lifetime, poker is more a game of skill"


So it takes over 4 days of playing a game 8 hours a day to decide if skill is the dominant factor which determines whether an individual will probably win or lose.

Playing Snooker against a professional, skill being a determining factor would be apparent after perhaps 2 minutes, Tennis the first couple of serves and returns, Darts the first half dozen arrows and Golf probably the first tee shot.


For Poker it takes 4 days of play !

That seems to translate to me that if Poker novices restrict themselves to offline tournament's lasting 3 days or less they have as much chance of filling their boots as the Hellmuth's and Negreanu's of this world.

And that explains why compared to real sportsmen the big name Poker players win so infrequently.

Ian

[saintpeter]

I'm glad to see such studies are being conducted, but I would hate to have to rely on it if defending myself in a court of law against a charge of illegal gambling.

The article, if I'm interpreting it correctly, didn't touch on tournament play at all. Here in Russia, tournament play is classified as a sport (which is an arguement I have no wish to get involved with), cash play is not.
The one major difference between playing poker and any other game such as snooker, darts, golf et al, is that one stroke of luck for your opponent will never remove you from the tournament in any other game except poker.
The second poster in comments at the end of the article summed it up well - "I thought it was inarguably self-evident that Poker, like most games, requires skill to make the best of the element of chance inherent in the game."

[Forte Fan]

Ian,

While the latest study may rekindle interest in this topic, it does little to sway my opinion - in fact, the general conclusion that you quoted supports my earlier recognition that skill plays the predominant role in certain poker games like Texas Hold 'Em:

So although chance plays a role, they suggest that because most players easily play this many hands in a lifetime, poker is more a game of skill"

In jurisdictions like my own, where chance must merely be a "material" element in deciding the winning outcomes, the German study is irrelevant since poker still equates to gambling under the penal law regardless of the fact that skill is a predominating factor.

In the few jursidictions where chance must dominate skill in determing the outcomes to constitute gambling, poker is a game of skill. This is precisely the judge’s ruling in the recent case, Commonwealth of Pennsylvania v. Watkins, in which the State charged a husband and wife who hosted Texas Hold ‘Em games dealt by the husband in their garage with illegal gambling, based upon testimony of an undercover state police investigator. The judge ruled, however, that since state law defines gambling as an activity in which chance plays the dominant role, poker is a game of skill because, based upon his review of poker books and legal publications, skill clearly dominates chance - the skill of seasoned player will always overcome the luck of a novice.

Forte Fan

[Aureliano]

Both.
Period.

[Forte Fan]

Originally Posted by Aureliano

Both.
Period.

What does THAT mean?!

[Aureliano]

Originally Posted by Forte Fan

What does THAT mean?!

Both. Luck and skill.

[ian]

Going to have to be brief here as the Barcelona v's Bayern Munich game is about to start.

This arrived via email a couple of days ago as part of PR for an Internet Poker room


It's Official – Poker Is Skillful
Word/PDF link to follow.

Here's the study.
http://www.cigital.com/news/index.php?pg=art&artid=157

Not sure about the conclusions as they seem to be based on who wins the Pot before and after the showdown. It needs a closer look.



Ian

[ian]

A neat example of the importance of skill when going all-in with Pocket Aces and then hitting another on the flop...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQbv62w3d1A





I think even the most hardened "Poker is a a game of Skill" person would have to agree the chap with Aces was very unlucky


Ian

[ian]

As I write the WSOP final table's November 9 is down to just 5 players.

What part did skill or luck play in the first four eliminations ?
You decide.


James Akenhead was the first to go. His all in pre-flop with pocket 3's being called by pocket 9's.


Kevin Schaffel went out in 8th place. His All-in with Pocket Aces pre-flop being beaten by Pocket King's. Aces would normally win about 81% of the time.


Phil Ivey left the table in 7th. His A-K All-in pre-flop being called by Darvin Moon with A-Q. From early reports there's no indication if either hand was suited but A-K against A-Q would expect to win around 72% of all such encounters.


Moon next eliminated Steve Begleiter. Begleiter was all-in pre-flop with Q-Q, Moon had A-Q and called. At this stage Begleiter should win 69% of the time. The Flop and Turn were no help to Moon and Begleiter is now 1 to 13 to win the pot (True odds 3/44) but an A came on the river and he was out.


Crazy game.

Ian

[ian]

Seven months on from the last post and Poker has once again been ruled a game of chance in the courts. This time it's Switzerland and the result will be that tournaments must be held within, or in conjunction with, the countries licensed casinos.


Switzerland bans private poker tournaments
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010...-private-poker


"Supreme court rules that Texas hold 'em matches are games of chance, not skill, and should be limited to licensed casinos

Switzerland's highest court banned private poker tournaments, arguing that luck rather than skill was the key ingredient in the card game.

In a ruling welcomed by casinos but that infuriated professional poker players, the supreme court ruled that organised poker tournaments should be confined to gambling casinos. It judged that skills such as calculating odds, bluffing, strategy and know-how were less of a factor than pure luck in determining the outcome of games."


Not everyone is happy of course, including the proprietors of the Swiss Poker Tour
http://www.swisspokertour.ch who's main story is presently titled "Une journée noire pour le poker ! C'EST L'HORREUR !!!!"

http://www.swisspokertour.ch/v4/inde...r+le+poker+%21


Here's the link to the ruling.
http://www.bger.ch/fr/mm_2c_694_2009_d.pdf


Ian

[ian]

A hand from a World Series of Poker final table.

Both players are All-in before the flop. A-K v's A-7. A King comes on the flop but it's still not going to be good enough.






Ian

[Snowman8]

Why does this still seem like gambling to you? I mean, why do you think the same five guys make it to the final table of the World Series of Poker EVERY SINGLE YEAR? What, are they the luckiest guys in Las Vegas? It's a skill game,


However my fav Rounders quote.. WORM: Just like the sayings says, you know?. In the poker game of life, women are the rake. They are the ****in' rake.

[ian]

Hello Snowman,

Welcome to the forum. Some background on the Rounders quote.
http://www.pokernews.com/news/2009/0...unders-105.htm


It wasn't until 1991 that there were more than 200 players entering the WSOP main event.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Series_of_Poker

Naturally in the early years the same players names appeared consistently as bracelet winners and at the final tables. With player numbers now in the 1,000's that's not the case any more with the exception that last year Jeff Lisandro did win three bracelets and was then voted player of the year 2009.



If Skill were the dominant factor determining the winner in Poker then the Phil Hellmuth's, Daniel Negreanu's and Chris Ferguson's of the world would consistently be winners. They aren't though.

However in Golf, Tennis, Snooker & Darts where skill is paramount Mickelson, Federer, Nadal, the William Sisters, O'Sullivan, Phil Taylor et al. get their mits on trophies year after year.


IMHO court rulings that Poker is a game of chance will ultimately be a good one for players. Especially if major tournaments and large cash games are played in, or under the supervision of licensed casino operators using professionally trained (and licensed) dealers.

It protects the integrity of the game !


For anyone who has doubts about that last sentence a quick search on YouTube or Google for "marked cards" might explain a little of what I mean.



Ian

[ian]

This has just come in from the IFP - also based in Switzerland.
http://www.ifpoker.org
http://www.ifpoker.org/about


IFP REACTION TO SWISS SUPREME COURT RULING
http://www.gamingfloor.com/pressrel2...landRuling.pdf


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interna...ation_of_Poker


Ian