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  #1  
Old 10th May 2004
123 123 is offline
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jackpot payout probability

My local casino has a progressive jackpot. It states in its advertising that the jackpot, currently 200000 must be won between 175000 and 225000. Now as they cannot know the jackpot will actually go at a particular amount can anyone tell me the calculation to determine the likely deviation from a theoretical event?
I presume that the paramaters they have used are far beyond those needed and they can say that the chances of it falling out of such are astronomical. Still, it could happen and as such would they not be open to a false advertising accusation?

BTW I forgot the actual amounts and those used are only as an example.
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  #2  
Old 10th May 2004
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dodgy77 dodgy77 is offline
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JACKPOT PAYOUT PROBABILITY

Surely the simple answer to this is to check out how the Pokie machine Progressive jackpots are won in Australia and NZ.
You say the JP is due to hit between 175 and 225.
Well then, should the JP hit tomorrow then the restart value will be 175.
If the JP value manages to reach 224,999.99. then the person who plays the next spin to increment it that last 1 cent/pence will win it.

The theory behind this is that once the jackpot reaches a certain level (near its max) then the machines will be packed with players all hoping to hit the jackpot before it reaches its maximum ceiling. Hence more players, more money dropped..blah blah blah.....the casino makes more money.....of course they have to pay out the Jackpot, but in the course of all those people putting all their hard earned cash into the machines the casino has made a profit from the fact of having a progressive jackpot which have lower percentage payouts for the top award than a regular machine not attached to a progressive award.
I think there was a case in Sky City, Auckland where the meter on a progressive reached its maximum value and the award didnt hit on any of the machines. Not sure of the outcome of that one though!!!
Hope you can make sense of this as I have written it at 4.30am after a night on the tiles!!!
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  #3  
Old 10th May 2004
123 123 is offline
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But thats the problem, if the jackpot has not been won by 224999.99 then the next spin is pre-determined as a win which it cannot be.
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  #4  
Old 10th May 2004
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123, Why can't the next spin be a predetermined win??

Here's an example of what I mean......
One day I went into a Pub in Sydney for a pint and the bartender said to me "Mate, u should get yourself on the slot machines, the progressive jackpots about to go".
So over I wandered to the machines only to see them all busy with a couple of guys playing max bets on 3 or 4 machines each... the max bet was $5 by the way...
Anyway the jackpot was a guaranteed winner before it reached 10 grand and it was on 9,975 when I got there.
So, in the period of time I was there drinking I watched these couple of guys put at least 2 or 3 grand each in the machines they were playing with one of them finally winning the jackpot at 9,999.83.
OK, the Pub may have had a losing day, but overall for the progressive to have reached such a high level the machines will have raked in far more than the 10 grand which was on offer and by offering a guaranteed win by a certain amount they are generating interest in the machines when the progressive meter reaches a high level, hence the couple of guys playing betting multi0le machines at max credits.... Overall things like this generate lots of excitement in the casinos and pubs and the players like the fact that they know that a certain amount of money is guaranteed to go before a predetermined value is reached.
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  #5  
Old 11th May 2004
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I don't know how the machines in pubs might differ from those programmed in casinos but...

here are 2 reasons why it cannot be pre-determined.

first each machine has a random number generator. the RNG is sending out 100's of numbers a second and it is only when you initiate a spin that the numbers are chosen. they can be different from one second to the next so the machine itself is not programmed to pay on any specific spin.

Machines aren't more likely to pay the longer you play either. Since the RNG is always spitting out new numbers yu have the same chance of winning the jackpot each time you play. The idea that a machine can be ready to pay is all in the players head. At least in regulated casinos.

2nd legaly each spin must be random and the situation you describe would not be. If this was the case the casino would be breaking the law by offering a game where the outcome was predetermined.

Last edited by 123; 11th May 2004 at 12:46 AM.
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  #6  
Old 11th May 2004
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123.

The progressive meters in australia are not directly linked to the spin of the wheels but are rather a random payout based on your value of play and how it is linked to the progression of the meter. You dont have to get 3 cherrys, 3 bars or whatever combination pays the highest prize as the progressive meter is run by an independent CPU from the machines that it is linked to. all the machines do is tell it to increment the progressice meter and also if you have won the progressive meter.

Having travelled all around the globe into many different casinos I can say I have only seen this setup in Australia and New Zealand.

Places such as the US usually just have a start value and a maximum value for the progressive meters. IE once it reaches a certain level it will go no higher, which may be in 1 minutes time or 1 years time...who knows...
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  #7  
Old 22nd May 2004
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In a normal casino enviroment a progressive jackpot can pay out at any time, for example you create a 10 machine bank linked to a progressive with a base amount of $10,000......switch on the machines and you can be hit 3 times in a row "theoretically that is" A progressive bank of machines is no different from a stand alone machine as the progressive base amount is usually the top award of the machine as if it was a stand alone. The settings in a prog. controller do not determine as to when the jackpot will be won (unless a mystery jackpot, where paramiters are set for coin in.....ie. between 1,500,000 coins played and 2,500,000 coins played the mystery will be won) of course the casino would not advertise these settings for reasons you can imagine.
If the game is a 3CM and all punters play 1 coin the jackpot will never be won ............so how can a casino advertise as to when a jackpot is due to pay. Normally a casino does not set a limit as to how high the jackpot is allowed to increment (the norm being 1% for every $1.00 played)
Getting back to reality you have to work out the probability of a jackpot been hit which involves the number of stops per reel and the number of top hits per cycle. If you can determin your average coin in per day you can theoretically work out as to how often the jackpot should pay. There are many programs out in the field written by techs to determin such events on a progressive, if you need such a program email me and I will send you one I use. Once again a progressive is completly random and not pre determined by coin in or value of jackpot. If it was I would be a very rich man and not still be in slots after 23 years.


HOTSLOT101
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  #8  
Old 22nd May 2004
SCSLOTS SCSLOTS is offline
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123 we need more info

Hi Hotslot,

I think 123 is talking about the mystery kind of Jackpot.

123 is it a link random mystery progressive or a link top pay progressive (eg when you hit 3 7'S with max coins bet)? Normally the top pay advertised on the machine will either show progressive next to the top paying combo or a fixed amount (as a normal stand alone non progressive machine) for a mystery.

So tell us more 123, nip down the casino in question, check out the fine details and let us know your findings so we can put an end to your dillema......
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Last edited by SCSLOTS; 22nd May 2004 at 09:10 PM.
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  #9  
Old 22nd May 2004
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hotslot101, SCSLOTS

its the top cash payout for the progressive. I'm assuming the statement they made is technically incorrect and it is more a case of the chances of the jackpot between x + y can be determined with z% confidence.

Many of their progressive banks have such statements. must go between x and y.
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  #10  
Old 24th May 2004
scarlosenrique scarlosenrique is offline
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Random and pseudo random

well i know that those behavior is not exactly random is "pseudo random" we knows that the slot machines has a payout percentages that the machine is controlling in a special way all the time , because the software of the machines also must assure to the casino a hold ór profit according to the law , i have see the documents of each machine bring with it and i see statistics for machines´s cycles, number of games at max bet , etc. there the manufacturers say that jackpot combination must appear in a number of games a bet max. probably that casino has made some analysis according to this of their machines in progressive and they are predicting it according to the statistical information, or maybe they have found a regularly behavior according to his past experience, but i think the only way they can explain that seriously is with the statistics analysis and documents of machines
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  #11  
Old 24th May 2004
SCSLOTS SCSLOTS is offline
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Cool marketing scam

HI 123,

Sounds like me like a bit of marketing........With Top pay progressives it is very impossible to predict at what cash amount it will be hit, but with the law of averages you can certainy narrow the limits down.

The marketing manager obviously got together with the slots manager and the law of averages came up in the conversation and BANG! the "must win between x and y" slogan.....

As with most marketing it is a case of not exactly true but not 100% false.....

Happy punting...........
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  #12  
Old 25th May 2004
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I have signed off on this topic. If the machines in question are operated the same as US machines then they cannot guarantee that the machine will definitely go before a certain level, unless of course they have set its max level at a lower limit than the one advertised!!!( wouldnt be the first time)
if they are run the NZ and OZ way then they can guarantee the jackpot will go before a certain amount is reached, see above comments as to why i state this......finito.
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